THE DEMOGRAPHIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE CATASTROPHIC EARTHQUAKE IN ARMENIA.
According to the data supplied by the Armenian State
Ccmmittee on Statistics, on January 12, 1989 and based on the
general census of the population of Armenia in 1989, the
population of Armenia was 3283 thousands.
On the basis of the average annual population increase in
the Republic during the 1984-1987 period, the population of
Armenia is calculated to be about 3504 thousands. Accordingly,
the minimum population increase in 1988 is taken to be 42
thousand and in 1989, 50 thousand.
Thus, the difference between the actual (after the
earthquake) and calculated (before the earthquake) population of
Armenia is 221 thousand. Deducting the official statistics data
on those evacuated outside the Republic (approx. 130
thousand) and the number of the perished (approx. 25 thousand),
there remain 66 thousand people unaccounted for.
It must be noted that the official information on the
perished and the evacuated is incomplete. The 130 and 25
thousand quoted above need serious review and revision. The
lists provided to the "Search" Center for analisys are neither
complete nor accurate. There are many repetitions. In fact, the
lists of the evacuated and those who perished are more nearly 60
and 16 thousand, respectively.
This means that we are lacking the following:
- An analisys of the real demographic pucture of the
population of Armenia which must serve as the basis for the
development of the socio-economic rehabilitation program.
- The determination of the real socio-economic needs of the
society and of the violations of the social and cultural codes
in different sections of the Republic and among the various
groups of the population;
-The calculation of the changes in the sex-age index of the
population;
- Studies on the disruptions of the structure of production
in the Republic and the changes in the structure of the
industrial potential;
- The prediction of the possible consequences of emigration
of the great part of the population from Armenia.
The demographic picture of the Republic on January 12, 1989
was as follows:
-The population of Armenia: 3283 thousand;
-The population of Yerevan (only): 1215,5 thousand;
-The homeless population: 500 thousand and;
-Refugees: 190 thousand;
-Missing are 91 thousand (25 thousand are victims);
-Evacuated outside the Republc: 130 thousand.
The complete restoration of the towns and regions in the
Republic will take five years and that of the
social-phychological condition of the survivors from the quake
will take about ten years.
The preliminary analisys of the available information shows
that during the next several years we will see a sharp birth
rate reduction and an increase of the death rate, and that the
median age of the population will grow. This will effect the
process of achieving the pre-quake number of the Armenian
people. It is known that, according to the 1979 census data,
2725 thousand of the 3031 thousand population of Armenia were
Armenians. The population will reach its 1988 pre-quake level in
ten to fifteen years at best. Restoration of the natural annual
increase levels will take approximately ten years.
Delays in the arrangements of living conditions and
employment of the refugees is criminal now. So is procrastination
in returning of data on the evacuated, mainly children and youth
who have aspirations to remain where they were evacuated.
There is an urgent need of the new demographic program for
the surviving of the Armenians. Armenia is the only republic in
the Soviet Union which has less inhabitants than there are
Armenians in the USSR; this was also true prior to the quake. In
1979 there were 4151 thousand Armenians in USSR and 2725
thousand in Armenia (65,6% of those in the USSR). Hence, the
number of Armenians in Armenia seems to show a tendency to
decrease.
What is in store for Armenia?
To normalise the demographic situation in Armenia and to
stop the migration of Armenians from Armenia and we have:
- To direct the main part of the forthcoming aid for the
faster restoration of the dwellings and the construction of the
new small towns and settlements;
-To send abroad for studies and probation for one or two
years some hundreds of young specialists and scholars in all
branches necessary for the natural development of the economics
of the Republic;
-To invite foreing specialists and scholars from the world
- especially Armenians of the diaspora - to help in restoring
the economics and industry of the Republic;
-To impliment a program of selling and leasing lands, parts
of unused teritory (mainly to Armenians from the foreing diaspo-
ra);
-To declare a state of emergency in Armenia. Armenia needs
not only a free economic zone, but also a new economic and
social demogrqaphic policy;
-To recognise all Armenians in the world as citizens of
Armenia.